New Zealand Forecast – Mixed Bag of Conditions with a Gobstopper on Friday
Published early Friday, 11th July 2025
There’s been a mixed bag of conditions across Kiwiland the last couple of days, including a bit of rain on Wednesday which forced Treble Cone to close on Thursday to allow the snowpack to drain.
Things will get much worse today, Friday, as a Tasman storm sends a powerful front over the country, which will absolutely nail Mt Ruapehu with heavy rain and strong winds for the umpteenth time. For the South Island, it’ll be best to head up early before conditions deteriorate later in the day with rain also expected.
The Tasman Storm will gradually weaken and slowly cross the country this weekend and early Monday, bringing another mixed bag of weather, including showers of snow to mid and upper slopes of most ski fields.
Friday 11th July
A strong front from the west brings another bout of rain to the country, starting first thing in the morning on Mt Ruapehu, and then around the middle of the day for Canterbury and later in the afternoon for the Southern Lakes. The rain will build into heavier falls later, especially on Mt Ruapehu where it’ll absolutely bucket down, and dense snow may fall about the tops of some South Island ski fields before it eases there at night.
Strengthening north-to-northeast winds over the country will end up blowing like mad on Mt Ruapehu, making for atrocious conditions there and likely limiting operations. Conditions will be best in the morning for South Island Ski fields.
Saturday 12th July
South Island ski fields will be mostly cloudy, particularly those closest to the Main Divide, such as Treble Cone, Ohau and Temple Basin, where there’ll also be frequent showers of rain and mid-upper level snow. A few showers will also make it to other ski fields further east as a wee wobble in the isobars goes through. Northwest winds will be quite strong in exposed areas, especially in Canterbury.
Heavy rain on Mt Ruapehu eases back to showers before dawn as a moderate, cooler northwest wind change goes through. The showers will fall as snow on upper slopes above 1800-1900m before clearing evening.
Sunday 13th July
A partly cloudy, partly sunny day for South Island ski fields, and there’ll be a dusting of snow on mid and upper slopes at night/overnight. Northeast winds for the Southern Lakes, and brisk northwest winds for Canterbury.
There’ll be a period of rain on Mt Ruapehu, not very heavy mind you, falling as snow on upper slopes above 1700-1800m. Brisk northwest winds.
Monday 14th July
Any remaining showers of rain and snow on South Island ski fields will clear early, leaving partly cloudy, partly sunny skies. Northwest winds will be light over the Southern Lakes and brisk in Canterbury.
Mt Ruapehu will be cloudy with a few showers, falling as snow above 1700-1800m, and northwest winds.
Extended Forecast
The pattern remains unsettled for much of next week. First, on Tuesday, a front from the west will bring a dusting or shot of snow to near base levels in the Southern Lakes, and to mid and upper levels in Canterbury and Mt Ruapehu respectively.
A ridge of high pressure will give us a quick break on Wednesday, before another Tasman Storm passes over the northern-central parts of the country during Thursday and next Friday. Mt Ruapehu will get nailed with another bout of rain, followed by some upper-level snow, while Canterbury could receive a large dump of snow if everything works out well – we’ll have to wait closer to the time before getting too pumped though. Things should settle down for the following weekend.
That’s all from me today, folks. I’m sending out these forecasts every Monday, Wednesday and Friday throughout the season. Have a great weekend, and I’ll see you back here on Monday.
Grasshopper
